Human judgment is the cognitive process by which individuals evaluate situations, weigh evidence, make decisions, and form beliefs or opinions. It is essential for daily life and critical thinking. Human judgment is shaped by a blend of psychological components, including cognitive processes, emotions, biases, heuristics, and social influences. These elements interact to determine how people gather, interpret, and act upon information in both routine and complex situations. It emerges from a combination of logic, emotion, bias, intuition, learned experience, and social context, making it powerful yet inherently imperfect. Judgment relies on information processing in the brain.Mental shortcuts known as cognitive biases can skew perception and lead to systematic errors. Emotions like anxiety, fear, excitement, or stress can strongly influence decisions. Mental shortcuts simplify decision-making in complex situations. It can lead to misjudgments, such as overestimating the likelihood o...
Illusions in human life are deeply connected to our perception and cognitive experience. It influences how we interpret reality and navigate everyday situations. These illusions range from simple optical tricks to more complex psychological and existential misperceptions that influence our beliefs, expectations, and well-being. Illusion of Predictability The illusion of predictability is a cognitive bias where people overestimate their ability to foresee future events or outcomes. This bias often arises from relying on past experiences, which leads individuals to feel unjustifiably confident in their judgments about what will happen next. The illusion persists because our minds are wired to construct coherent stories from limited or ambiguous information, creating a sense of understanding and control over what are actually chaotic or unknown outcomes. In business or investing, people may put undue trust in models or trends, confident in their predictive power, even when outcomes d...